The COVID-19 crisis That affect the whole world Today, the violence appears to be less than the world aviation situation. Many people think that it may be until 2023 or beyond. The demand for aviation will return. It estimated that only 30 airlines in over 700 airlines around the world can survive.
Image of congestion at Don Mueang and Suvarnabhumi airports Both the passenger compartment and the runway will not be seen for a long time. Because of the rampage of COVID-19.
Anyone who expects everything in aviation to return as it was before COVID-19 must revisit. Because people who are familiar with this business on a global scale believe that the stagnation of aviation will last for many years.
Let’s look at the numerical behavior of the world’s two largest aircraft manufacturers. It is enough to see how he views the situation behind COVID-19. Aviation demand As well as the world in the future will drastically reduce. Boeing announced a 50% reduction in production and canceled plans to develop two new planes in the next decade. So, over the next decade, we decided to cut production by 30%.
Before COVID-19 Worldwide demand for air travel predicte to grow 4.3% annually over the next 20 years.
until about 40,000 new aircraft will be produced globally. But this is now skeptical. Because of the power of COVID – 19 Over the past 6 months More than 5,000 planes around the world had to land on runways because of the epidemic.
Warren Buffett , Investment Master Sold out of American Airlines stock and lost billions of dollars. But I have to do it because I expected that if you hold it, it will hurt much more.
The poorly abandoned model is the giant Boeing-747. Capacity of over 300 passengers can fly thousands of miles. During COVID-19 The epidemic had to land on most of the runways, as well as the huge A-380 Air Bus, and Emirates Airlines, which had 242 747s, sold 115 of them in 2020.
Why is the aviation business so pessimistic?
The first reason is that the COVID-19 outbreak believe around the world, it is still in the first phase, one outbreak is not over in the United States. Many European countries, South America As well as India and especially Africa.
Which has a total population of 1,200 million people in the population of 7,700 million people worldwide.
The second outbreak has already occurred in many countries. I am sure that around the end of 2020. it will happen again in many countries of both Europe and the United States. The COVID-19 vaccine is the earliest to release for some people, it won’t escape early 2021 and it will take almost a full year until 2022 for most of the world to reach it.
That people can fly across the country Many countries have a common view. That it is safe for their people and that many countries will see that Safety from COVID- 19 together is not easy. It will take years until 2023 or later to return.
Fear of COVID-19 It will be in the minds of the poor that they don’t want to fly long distances.
Or even near Because the air in the ventilator is limited and has a high chance of contracting disease The flight demand is therefore slow to return. It depends on the success of each country’s outbreaks curbing which no magician can go to control them all.
Cause 2 domestic and international business travel Formerly a major source of income for airlines. It will drop considerably as online conferencing has become so popular around the world and will go on forever. Companies are thus saving money by allowing their employees to use online meetings instead of traveling. They are also afraid of being sued by COVID-19 employees. From travel, and also seeking a COVID-19 sickness insurance company Difficult as well.
As for the travel for tourism Although wanting to travel internationally, fear of COVID-19 There is more As a result, many tourists are inclined to travel only within the country, which has significantly reduced international aviation demand.
“Travel-Bubbles” which is a contractual journey made between two countries or a group of countries in order to reach each other. Without detention may fall in the event of a second or third outbreak
Some third -virus measures only 0.1 microns can make airline has a large critical condition by the same IATA. Which prophesied so generous that the airline industry will recover back to the levels before the bull David -19 prior. By 2023, it is estimated that only 30 of the 700 airlines worldwide can survive. If not receiving government assistance.
The airline business is more sensitive to liquidity (cash) than any other business.
Due to high costs such as aircraft rentals Payment of a loan to buy a plane Fuel costs, salaries, wages, etc. These expenses have to be paid by many companies in many countries.
Missing predictions about the exchange rate, fuel prices, flight routes, aircraft sizes, etc. It easily get airlines in trouble when planes are banned. Flying because of the epidemic, therefore lacking income (cash) while expenses arise all the time. Especially large loan payments.
Major consequences of the COVID-19 outbreak That is, the cost of flying per person will be higher because (a) the law forcing seats. (Income Limits) (b) Accumulated Old Debt Causes Higher Interest Payments (C) Requires Travel- Bubbles Agreement, Makes Flight Limits (D) Environmental Laws Regulating Climate Change, Flight Limits (E) The original intense competition will be eliminated by demonstrating strength. The “monopoly” rate of the airlines that survive.
All of this in a way that increases air ticket prices. The heyday of low-cost planes has ended.
The dire forecast for the aviation business is based on the assumption that the first outbreak is not over and the second will return. If the vaccine comes earlier than expected. It makes the people of the world trust that they dare to travel by air again The aviation business would have a new and more beautiful face.
People still get sick, why can’t the airline business get sick? This matter, the author empathizes and takes care of the sick, ” Thai Airways ” of all of our airlines.